The Morning Card — September 14, 2026

The analyst's record: 43–41 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 3-2 for a net of +0.4u. Credit where due: Chase Burns Over 3.5 Ks @ -124 delivered with an actual 5; the night’s worst miss was Grant Holmes Over 3.5 Ks @ -102, who recorded an actual 0.

Bubba Chandler — Under 4.5 Ks (-108): WON
Chase Burns — Over 3.5 Ks (-124): WON
Emmet Sheehan — Under 5.5 Ks (-150): WON
Grant Holmes — Over 3.5 Ks (-102): LOST
Cal Quantrill — Under 3.5 Ks (+121): LOST

Tonight

10 games on the slate — the marquee: Tigers @ Jays at 2026-09-14T23:07:00.0000000+00:00.

Detroit's offense is red-hot — 34 runs in its recent surge — and that will press a Toronto relief corps that has already logged 15.0 relief IP. That matters because José Soriano has thrown 166.0 IP with a 3.47 ERA this season, so his ability to eat innings can blunt pressure on tired relievers. FanDuel lists the Jays at -132 and the consensus total sits at 7.5, indicating the market still leans toward Toronto despite Detroit's scoring burst and Toronto's bullpen workload.

The angle

Jose Soriano — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Tigers @ Jays, 2026-09-14T23:07:00.0000000+00:00)

At Rogers Centre, where strikeouts get shaved by 4%, this Tigers lineup doesn’t swing through much — they’ve struck out in 21.2% of trips against right-handers. Soriano’s (Jays) punchouts have cooled, fanning only 18.2% of hitters over his last ten starts, and his recent run includes three and two strikeouts in two of his last three. With six days since his last outing and 89 pitches last time out, give me Jose Soriano Under 5.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -132 · DraftKings -132 · Fanatics -145

5 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Braves @ Cubs — Reynaldo López has dominated Chicago Cubs — .195 BAA with a 29% strikeout rate over 135 plate appearances across 7 seasons.

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