The Morning Card — September 16, 2026

The analyst's record: 52–46 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 5-4 and +0.1u, credit for scraping out a winning night. The standout was Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 7.5 Ks @ -128 (actual 7) and the worst miss was Jack Perkins Under 4.5 Ks @ -150 (actual 8).

Andre Pallante — Under 3.5 Ks (-108): WON
Cristopher Sanchez — Under 6.5 Ks (-111): WON
Martin Perez — Under 3.5 Ks (-125): WON
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Under 7.5 Ks (-128): WON
Patrick Sandoval — Under 5.5 Ks (-136): WON
Kyle Freeland — Over 2.5 Ks (+106): LOST
Jack Perkins — Under 4.5 Ks (-150): LOST
Max Fried — Under 4.5 Ks (+118): LOST
Ryan Johnson — Under 4.5 Ks (-150): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Giants @ Cardinals at 2026-09-16T17:15:00.0000000+00:00.

This game hinges on Anthony Molina's road vulnerability — he's been notably hittable away, a .339 BAA on the road, against a Cardinals lineup that strikes out just 20.7% of the time versus RHP. The market gives St. Louis a clear edge — Cardinals about -156 on the moneyline and an 8.0 total that implies only modest scoring, effectively pricing the Molina-versus-Cardinals matchup toward the home club. Busch Stadium's pitcher-friendly profile, which suppresses strikeouts and runs, plus Matthew Liberatore's 9.2 K/9, create a counterweight that could let St. Louis ride length from its starter even if Molina's road troubles produce early traffic.

The angle

Anthony Molina — Under 3.5 Strikeouts (Giants @ Cardinals, 2026-09-16T17:15:00.0000000+00:00)

St. Louis lives on contact, striking out in just 20.9% of trips against righties this season, 21.3% overall, and Busch shaves strikeouts by nine percent. Anthony Molina (Giants) comes in on five days’ rest after 72 pitches last time out, and even with his last ten starts ticking up to a 23.9% strikeout clip, this setting leans against a big punchout night. Give me Anthony Molina Under 3.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -128 · FanDuel -140 · Fanatics -140

Split BAA .339 · Overall BAA .312 · 10 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Tigers @ Jays — Max Scherzer has dominated Detroit Tigers — .206 BAA with a 46% strikeout rate over 104 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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