The Morning Card — October 10, 2026

The analyst's record: 82–91 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

No slate last night — league off day.

Tonight

2 games on the slate — the marquee: Sox @ Guardians at 2026-10-11T00:00:00.0000000+00:00.

Gavin Williams' swing-and-miss stuff is the spine here — he fanned 11 batters in his last outing and carries a 12.1 K/9 this season. That matters because the Sox lineup is strikeout-prone against righties, posting a 24.3% K rate this season, which hands Williams clear leverage to pile up whiffs. Books price the Guardians as modest favorites — about -138 on the moneyline — and a 7.0 total suggests a preference for a lower-scoring game. The counterpoint is Miguel Vargas, who is 7-for-15 against Williams in his career, so his early at-bats will be a key test of whether Williams can turn swing-and-miss into outs.

The angle

Gavin Williams — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (Sox @ Guardians, 2026-10-11T00:00:00.0000000+00:00)

Two days after a brief 18-pitch tune-up, Gavin Williams (Guardians) is back on short rest — and that shifts the story from his strikeout bark to his leash. The Sox do swing through a lot at 25.0% against righties, and Williams has been mowing guys down — 26.8% for his career, 31.4% this year, 32.5% over his last ten — but the quick turnaround points to fewer frames than usual. Give me Gavin Williams Under 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel +126 · DraftKings -101

K/9 14.5 · IP 50.3 · 15 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Yankees @ Rays — Ben Rice is on a power surge — 6 HR, 3 doubles, batting .326 over his last 10 games.

More cards

← October 9, 2026 October 11, 2026 →

Nov 1 · Oct 31 · Oct 30 · Oct 29 · Oct 28 · Oct 27 · Oct 26 · Oct 25 · Oct 24 · Oct 23