The Morning Card — October 11, 2026

The analyst's record: 82–92 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 0-1 and dropped −1.0u. The lone miss was Gavin Williams Under 6.5 Ks @ +126 -> lost (actual 12).

Gavin Williams — Under 6.5 Ks (+126): LOST

Tonight

1 games on the slate — the marquee: Dodgers @ Brewers at 2026-10-12T00:00:00.0000000+00:00.

Jacob Misiorowski has been dominant — a 2.02 ERA on the season and a 1.14 ERA across his last five starts. FanDuel lists the Brewers at -112 while the consensus total is 6.0, signaling a narrow favorite and an expectation of a low-scoring game. That matters because Freddie Freeman is 0-for-7 against Misiorowski and American Family Field plays pitcher-friendly (-5% runs), which should amplify Misiorowski’s swing-and-miss profile. Tarik Skubal (2.77 ERA) provides a quality counterpunch, so this shapes up as a pitching duel to follow.

The angle

Tarik Skubal — Under 7.5 Strikeouts (Dodgers @ Brewers, 2026-10-12T00:00:00.0000000+00:00)

Milwaukee hasn’t been a soft touch for lefties, striking out in 21.5% of trips, and Skubal’s punchouts have slipped from a career 29.0% to 27.0% over his last ten. Even with this park nudging strikeouts up 5%, he’s coming in on 8 days between turns and off 94 pitches, a rhythm that reads more steady than soaring. Give me Tarik Skubal (Dodgers) Under 7.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -146 · Fanatics -150 · DraftKings -151

17 Ks over his last 2 starts

More cards

← October 10, 2026 October 12, 2026 →

Nov 1 · Oct 31 · Oct 30 · Oct 29 · Oct 28 · Oct 27 · Oct 26 · Oct 25 · Oct 24 · Oct 23