The Morning Card — October 12, 2026

The analyst's record: 83–92 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 1-0 for +0.7u. Credit to Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 Ks @ -146, which won (actual 7) — that was the best win and there were no misses to note.

Tarik Skubal — Under 7.5 Ks (-146): WON

Tonight

2 games on the slate — the marquee: Guardians @ Rays at 2026-10-13T00:00:00.0000000+00:00.

Drew Rasmussen has repeatedly stifled Cleveland, limiting them to a .195 batting average across 125 plate appearances. The market makes the Rays the clear favorite: FanDuel lists Tampa Bay at -164 while Cleveland sits around +138. That edge is amplified at Tropicana Field, which boosts strikeouts by 6% and plays about 8% fewer runs than average. It helps explain why a Rays club that is 4-1 over its last five holds the market advantage, especially since José Ramírez has managed just .083 against Rasmussen.

The angle

Drew Rasmussen — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Guardians @ Rays, 2026-10-13T00:00:00.0000000+00:00)

Rasmussen’s heater looks electric, but Cleveland doesn’t chase: this lineup has struck out on only 17.9% of plate appearances against righties, and Steven Kwan is 4-for-12 with zero strikeouts in 13 plate appearances against him. Even with Tropicana’s 6% strikeout boost and 9 days of rest after a 101-pitch gem, the Guardians tend to keep punchout totals in check. Give me Drew Rasmussen (Rays) Under 5.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings +107 · FanDuel +106 · Fanatics +105

BAA .195 · K rate 25% · 21 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Dodgers @ Brewers — Jackson Chourio is red-hot — batting .382 over his last 10 games (baseline .290).

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