The Morning Card — October 13, 2026

The analyst's record: 83–93 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night; the loss leads — our record is 0-1 and our P&L is −1.0u. Our worst miss was Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 Ks @ +107; Rasmussen had 7.

Drew Rasmussen — Under 5.5 Ks (+107): LOST

Tonight

1 games on the slate — the marquee: Guardians @ Rays at 2026-10-14T00:00:00.0000000+00:00.

Freddy Peralta has repeatedly stifled Cleveland — a .194 batting average across 74 plate appearances — and his pitch counts have trended down sharply in recent starts, so a short leash is plausible tonight. The market makes the Rays the favorite at about -132 on FanDuel and sets the total at 6.8, implying a low-to-moderate scoring game. That matters because Parker Messick (2.73 ERA, 9.6 K/9) gives Cleveland a stout lefty who can exploit an early hook, and the Guardians’ recent offense has been productive enough to take advantage if Peralta departs sooner than usual.

The angle

Freddy Peralta — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (Guardians @ Rays, 2026-10-14T00:00:00.0000000+00:00)

Under the Tropicana dome, where strikeouts come six percent easier, Freddy Peralta’s (Rays) stuff gets an extra bite. He’s lived as a strikeout artist — 27.9 percent for his career — and even in a cooler run this year at 21.4 percent and 20.5 over his last ten starts, he’s kept Cleveland quiet with a .194 average across 74 plate appearances. The Guardians don’t fan often at just 18.0 percent against this side and his leash might be short after only 66 pitches eight days ago, but the dome bump and his history point to four before he exits — give me Freddy Peralta Over 3.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -129 · FanDuel -132

BAA .194 · K rate 22% · 7 Ks over his last 2 starts

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