The Morning Card — October 15, 2026

The analyst's record: 84–93 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

No graded picks from last night's slate.

Tonight

2 games on the slate — the marquee: Rays @ Guardians at 2026-10-15T17:00:00.0000000+00:00.

Gavin Williams’ swing-and-miss spike is the centerpiece here — he’s racking up 12.3 K/9 this season — and that sets up a notable clash with Yandy Díaz, who is 7-for-15 lifetime against him. That duel matters because Progressive Field plays pitcher-friendly (-6% runs) and Díaz has been a threat vs righties, batting .304 against RHP this year. The market sides with the home team at about -130 and a 6.5 total, reflecting expectations for a low-to-modest scoring game driven by Williams’ stuff and the park.

The angle

Gavin Williams — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (Rays @ Guardians, 2026-10-15T17:00:00.0000000+00:00)

Gavin Williams (Guardians) has bullied lineups lately, with 12 and 11 strikeouts in his last two, but the Rays are a different animal. Tampa Bay keeps the bat on the ball, striking out in just 18.1 percent of plate appearances against right-handers this season, and Yandy Díaz has solved him — 7-for-15 with only one strikeout in 16 trips. Give me Gavin Williams Under 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: Fanatics -125 · FanDuel -130 · DraftKings -142

23 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Brewers @ Dodgers — Tyler Glasnow has stifled Milwaukee Brewers — limiting them to a .201 BAA over 161 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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