The Morning Card — October 16, 2026

The analyst's record: 84–94 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night — 0-1 and −1.0u. Our lone graded pick, Gavin Williams Under 6.5 Ks @ -125, lost (actual 9).

Gavin Williams — Under 6.5 Ks (-125): LOST

Tonight

2 games on the slate — the marquee: Rays @ Guardians at 2026-10-17T00:00:00.0000000+00:00.

Nick Martinez's contact-heavy, low-whiff approach (5.4 K/9) is the spine of this game, because he'll test a Guardians lineup built to put the ball in play. Guardians hitters have a 17.2% strikeout rate against RHP this season and Progressive Field plays -6% runs vs average, a pairing that likely produces a balls-in-play duel rather than a strikeout-driven night. Books make the Rays a narrow favorite — DraftKings lists them at -112 — and the 6.5 total implies the market expects a relatively low-scoring contest.

Watch list

Brewers @ Dodgers — Christian Yelich is red-hot — batting .313 over his last 10 games (baseline .231).

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